Chicago Cubs 8-8

This in Cubs baseball witnessed what could be a tipping point for the season, Nomar Garciaparra’s groin tear in St. Louis. He is out a minimum of 2-3 months if Nomar does not have surgery, which will mean he is out for the season. Nomar was not performing as a impact player when he was injured he was batting below the infamous "Mendoza-line", [AKA .200]. The question is how much impact would have Garciaparra provided the Cubs over one-third to one-half of the season? And two, how much impact will he be able to provide if and when he returns. Cubs recalled 22- year- old SS Ronnie Cedeno

"Part of the mystery surrounding Guzman' s health is that he still has not reported to the Jazz yet. Friday when the Jaxx return for a homestand more infomation may come to light."

per a knowledgable source

The Chicago Cubs through the Chicago Tribune announced that Angel Guzman remains on hold, here is the article snippet

<Paull Sullivan snp>

Guzman on hold

Minor-league prospect Angel Guzman was placed on the 15-day disabled list at the start of the season for Double-A West Tenn after straining his right forearm during a minor-league exhibition game at the end of March. The Cubs said it was nothing serious, and he was supposed to be ready to return this week.

But West Tenn manager Bobby Dickerson acknowledged the club is not sure when Guzman will be healthy enough to begin pitching again.

"I have no idea of what's going on," Dickerson told the Jackson (Tenn.) Sun. "Right now we're just going with the status quo."

Guzman, considered the Cubs' top pitching prospect, made only 11 starts in 2004 while rehabbing from shoulder surgery. This is his third straight season with arm problems.

<snip>

I was hoping he would be ready around Memorial Day, well that is 6 weeks from now. Whenever an announcement regarding one of the Cubs top ten prospects is made I will try to put it up outside my weekly scheduling.

This week in Cubs baseball: Each week I will review the entire Cubs baseball organization both their on field performance and off field events. I will try to focus on the minor league player development.

Major League Baseball club, (AKA Chicago Cubs): The biggest news was that Mark Prior (1-0) and last year’s injury-plagued pitching star reasserted himself as a dominant hurler in game pitching a 6 inning shut out in his 2005 debut. Coming off the DL on Tuesday 4/12 (back dated to 3/25) forcing the Cubs to option RHP reliever Todd Wellemeyer (26 years old) to AAA I-Cubs. Wellemeyer had two appearances and recorded a 7.72 ERA.

The other big news was the untimely on field injury of 31-year old starting 2^nd baseman Todd Walker (.381 BA) during the final Milwaukee Brewers game last Sunday. Walker sprained his MCL and is not expected to return for 4 to 6 weeks. Fortunately he the injury does not require surgery which would have ended his prospects for this season. Cubs called up 24 year-old, left-handed hitting 2^nd baseman, Mike Fontenot from AAA I-Cubs. Fontenot was acquired with Jerry Hairston from Baltimore in the off-season trade of Sammy Sosa. (Last night he coaxed a walk, was pushed over by Patterson's sac-bunt and scored on Perez's double.)

Overall the Cubs are 5-6 stumbling out of the start with inconsistent hitting and pitching. Cubs have lost 2 out 3 series (D-Backs and Padres, winning the Brewers match up and now tied 1-1 with Pittsburgh). There is a smoldering controversy percolating regarding Manager Dusty Baker’s late game tactics use of the bench players and bullpen on top of his already quizzical public anecdotes to the media. Yet the entire division is playing around .500 +/- a game or two either way.

The Cub’s farm system is not as exciting as it once was when it was ranked in the top 3 in 2002. But Baseball America still believes it is one of baseball’s better systems of talent now ranking about 10^th overall. This is what happens when good systems graduate their major league talent like two all-star starting pitchers (Prior and Zambrano) and also fielding OF’s like Patterson and now rookie of the year's ROY prospect Jason Dubois. Just as important they have used their system to trade for ¾’s of this year’s starting infield, in Lee, Garciaparra and Ramirez from clubs whoi were unloading salarries. Only Nomar is not signed to a long-term deal.

Last year the Cub’s affiliates had a combined.538 winning percentage that was 6^th best in all of baseball. AA-level second baseman Richard Lewis, A-level (Daytona) 1st basemen Brandon Sing and A-level 1^st baseman Brian Dopirak (Lansing) all earned their league MVP awards. This year it is expected that Dubois will compete for a starting left field spot while next year it is expected that Richard Lewis should compete for the 2^nd base spot. Long-term genuine All Star prospects in the system are Dopirak and outfielders Felix Pie and Ryan Harvey, although they’re at best a few years away from the major league club, but that is what we said about Patterson and Zambrano when they were in Lansing. This has profound implications on the big league clubs roster especially when looking long term at the corner outfield positions.

The Cubs continue to produce more pitching and still have several promising arms even thought they tradied away prospects like LHP Justin Jones (Garciaparra trade), and letting Andy Sisco and Luke Hagerty go through the Rule 5 draft. Sisco stuck on the KC roster while Hagerty was returned. RHP Angel Guzman, Chadd Blasko and Jae-Kuk Ryu have had injuries in 2004 setting back their progresses, but the Cubs organization still believes that Guzman could emerge as a top of the rotation starter. Other genuine major league prospects are Billy Petrick, Renyel Pinto, Sean Marshall and Grant Johnson.

Look for the Cubs to continue to bring up young arms into the bullpen (last year they developed Leicester & Wuertz as capable middle relievers while discriminatingly using prospects to cherry pick other club’s salary imbalances for true performing major leaguers. I could envision seeing either Guzman or Pinto making it to the starting rotation by mid-summer and one of the other younger arms developed as the Cubs next closer like Brownlie, Blasko, Ryu, Petrick or Hagerty.

All told Baseball America’s Cub top ten prospects are as follows: (1) Brian Dopirak 1B (A-Daytona), (2) Felix Pie, CF, (AA-West TN), (3) Ryan Harvey, RF (A-Peoria), (4) Angel Guzman, RHP (AAA-Iowa), (5). Billy Petrick, RHP (A-Daytona), (6). Renyel Pinto, LHP (AAA-Iowa), (7) Sean Marshall, LHP, (AA-West Tenn) (8). John Leicester, RHP (Chicago Cubs), (9). Grant Johnson, RHP, (A-Daytona) and (10) Jason Dubois, LF, (Chicago Cubs). Since Leicester and Dubois have made the major leagues I will add (11) Bobby Brownlie RHP, (AAA-Iowa), (12) Matt Murton, LF, (AA-West TN). All told there are two who have made the opening major league roster, (3) bona fide major league prospects at AAA-Iowa, (3) at AA-West Tenn., (3) at A-Daytona and (1) at A-Lansing. There are (6) pitchers, 1^st baseman and (3) outfielders.

AAA Iowa Cubs: The I-Cubs have stumbled completely out of the gate with a 1-8 start. Last year they were quite competitive in the Pacific Coast League (PCL) but this remains to be seen at least for this side of the split season. The I-Cubs roster has a number of players to watch as either prospects for the parent club or trade bait during the mid-season roster rummage sales. Starting pitching roles include RHP 24-year old first round pick Bobby Brownlie, 22-year old LHP Renyel Pinto, 24-year old RHP Sergio Mitre and sidelined with a forearm strain in his pitching arm, RHP 23-year old Angel Guzman. Relief core to watch will be LHP 27-year old rehabbed Will Ohman, 25-year old RHP Roberto Novoa (acquired from Detroit for Farnsworth in the off-season), and 24 year old LHP John Koronka. Naturally we will also watch Todd Wellemeyer, Russ Rohlicek and Will Cunnane.

In the infield there are three prospect willing to watch besides the 2^nd baseman (Fontenot) called up following the Walker injury; 22-year old SS Ronny Cedeno, (he had a great spring), 24-year old 2^nd baseman, Richard Lewis, (he was acquired last year in the Juan Cruz trade with Atlanta, he is now with Oakland where he was used to acquire All Star RHP Hudson), and power hitting 25-year old 1B Micah Hoffpauir. In the outfield we will continue to watch non-prospects 25 year old David Kelton (last player cut in spring training), and newly acquired former rookie of the year, Ben Grieve.

What to watch for? As you will see Cubs have two of the top 10 prospects at 1^st base in AA and A while Derrick Lee who remains in his prime solid on the Cubs in the midst of a 4-year extension. Hoffpauir might have some value to smaller market team along with Mitre, Koronka, Rohlicek even Brownlie and Wellemeyer.

AA West Tenn (Jacksonville) Diamond Jaxx. Historically this is the club to watch for Cubs futures. This year is no exception where Baseball America says that the WT Jaxx have four of the Cubs top prospects, (Cubs rank 10^th in prospects overall). The four players are (#2ranked) 20-year old OF Felix Pie, (#11ranked) 23-year old OF Matt Murton, (ranked #15) 24-year old slugging 1^st baseman, Brandon Sing, and (ranked #19) 23- year old starting RHP Ricky Nolasco. The Jaxx also have coveted 23-year old LHP Carmen Pignatiello, osprey hunting 21-year old RHP Jae-kuk Ryu.

The Jaxx have started out 5-3 but the real deal is to watch how Pie, Murton and Sing do offensively while what Nolasco and Ryu can do on the mound.

A-Daytona Cubs: Unlike previous years there are only three big names on Daytona’s roster, 1B Brian Dopirak, (concensus top prospect by all ratings guru’s) RHP’s Billy Petrick and Grant Johnson (when he recovers from a hamstring injury). For baseball fanatics you might take a peak at RHP Carlos Marmol. The Cubs have a suspension on their hands 2^nd baseman, Robinson Chirinos and then there is Scott Moore who is projected at 3^rd base, he was acquired from Detroit as part of the Farnsworth trade. .

A-Peoria Chiefs: Recently my knowledge at this level of the Cub’s farm system isn’t quite what it once was when I recall watching Corey Patterson, Hei Sop Choi, Kelton, Freese and Zambrano at Lansing. For the Midwest League Ryan Harvey and Corey’s much younger brother Eric Patterson are prospects to watch closely. Harvey, who was the 6^th overall pick in the 1^st round back 2003, has huge upside possessing huge power. He needs to work on mechanics and shorten a long swing but he has All Star potential as evidenced that he is the Cubs 3^rd overall prospect as rated by Baseball America. He could carve up the Midwest League like Dopirak did in 2004. Eric Patterson doesn’t have his older sibling’s HR power, but he has better command of the strike zone (imagine that), and is just as fast. He could move through the levels and compete with Richard Lewis for the 2^nd base spot. We will see who else emerges, someone always does.

In summation the pipeline is still very strong in pitching, pretty good with genuine offensive All Star potential in the outfield and 1^st base, and a few 2^nd baseman. They only have one shortstop prospect and it is good he is at Iowa but he is no Nomar, at least Nomar’s historical offensive numbers. But the Cubs could turnover the middle infield with bona fide major league prospects even next year with Lewis and Cedeno. Trade bait is firmly pivoted at 1^st base where the Cubs have two prospects (Hoffpauir and Sing) with the likes of Dopriak coming up a few years away from Lee’s contract maturity. All in all the Cubs are in pretty good shape barring a rash of injuries.